From 2024 to 2028. Three scenarios for the restoration of air traffic in Europe

From 2024 to 2028. Three scenarios for restoring air traffic in Europe

In the last The Eurocontrol report, published in June, set the date for the industry to fully recover in 2024. What happened?

“We have seen strong demand this summer, but it has been held back by the industry’s lack of ability to cope with rapid passenger growth and developments in Ukraine,” — said Eurocontrol CEO Eamon Brennan.

He stressed that 49 percent more flights are expected this year compared to last year, but this volume is 16 percent less than the pre-pandemic 2019.

"We are optimistic about traffic recovering to around 92 percent of 2019 levels next year. But there are significant risks that could affect recovery.

According to Eurocontrol, there are three scenarios for the development of the aviation situation:

The first forecast shows a recovery to pre-pandemic levels as early as next year, while the most pessimistic forecast shows a recovery after 2028.

All of these projections are made taking into account several factors, including rising energy prices, as well as the shortage of staff noted this summer, which may be repeated next year.

All three also take into account the return of long-haul traffic next year, as well as a minimum of travel restrictions caused by the spread of coronavirus and its new varieties.

According to a recent report from Eurocontrol, by October this year, air traffic reached a total of 82 percent of the level that existed before the pandemic, while at the beginning of the month it was 87 percent. However, figures still remain below the June forecast of 90 percent by September-October and a total of 92 percent by December.

Eurocontrol predicts traffic next year will reach 92% of the level that existed before the pandemic, and will increase to 98 percent in 2024.

The document notes that fuel prices have risen by 47% since the beginning of this year, while July airfares rose by 15% on compared to 2019 levels, so “it's not clear how airlines can pass on fuel price hikes to travelers.” 

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