Cirium's independent 20-year Global Passenger and Cargo Market Outlook confirms the positive long-term outlook for the aviation industry and its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. According to this forecast, aircraft deliveries over 20 years worldwide will be only 1% lower than forecast a year ago. This is happening despite the situation in Eastern Europe, restrictions on travel to China and rising energy prices in 2022.
The recovery of the aviation industry from the crisis caused by the pandemic in early 2020 is uneven in different regions.
Asia will account for more than 40% of new shipments, mainly from China. According to forecasts, in 2041 the country will have the highest annual growth rate of passenger traffic — over 6% and account for 19% of shipments, outpacing all other Asia-Pacific countries with a combined share of 22%.
North American and European airlines account for 21% and 17% of shipments, respectively. Middle Eastern airlines will take over 7% of new aircraft, which will be 14% in value terms due to more expensive trim levels and range — UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabiawill mainly focus on the purchase of wide-body vehicles.
The forecast assumes that passenger traffic and traffic in Russia will decrease in the near future. Combined with the complete cessation of civil aviation activity in Ukraine in 2024, the volume of traffic between Russia and the CIS will stabilize at 70% of the level of 2019.
Demand for narrow-bodysingle-aisle aircraft are now within 2019 levels, unlike wide-body — minus 20%. This is because the recovery of long-haul traffic is slower.
In the case of regional aircraft, turboprops will take precedence. Their number worldwide will grow at a faster rate.
The projected growth in passenger traffic in the long term will require an increase in the global passenger fleet by about 22,000 aircraft, which corresponds to an annual growth rate of 3.1%, resulting in about 47,700 new aircraft in the world by the end of 2041.
At the same time, until mid-2023, the number of active aircraft in the world will not return to the level of 2019, which will actually lead to the loss of four years of “normal” fleet growth.
Airbus and Boeing will remain the two largest commercial aircraft manufacturers, supplying approximately 80% of — about 88% in money.
The need to replace older, less efficient types of liners will increase. About 88% of the current passenger fleet is projected to be decommissioned over the next 20 years. Cargo ships have a longer useful life, so by 2041 “retired” will send approximately 70% of the current fleet.
In general, by the end of 2041, about 19,000 aircraft will be withdrawn from the passenger fleet, plus another 2,500 units will leave the passenger fleet as a result of conversion to cargo.